In a few hours, promoter Andrea Rossi will, for the 12th time, demonstrate how he is able to make boxes of pipes and wires heat water and, possibly, bring it to a boil. What makes Rossi’s device different from an ordinary electric tea kettle is his claim: massive amounts of nuclear-scale heat.
I don’t doubt the legitimacy of the underlying science — apparently copied from biophysicist Francesco Piantelli — which has been published in peer-reviewed journals. But I do doubt the extraordinary magnitude of Rossi’s claim. And I certainly have very low confidence in the one and only paper that Rossi published with his associate Sergio Focardi. They self-published their paper on Rossi’s blog, which Rossi calls Journal of Nuclear Physics.
Readers may find this timeline of events helpful. It provides an excellent track of the Rossi story from the beginning to perhaps the end. I have recently added many new details.
One of the main reasons I doubt Rossi’s claim is that, when I went to see his device in person and filmed it, the visible steam output looked even less than what would come out of an ordinary tea kettle. Yet, according to Rossi, it was producing kilowatts of heat at the time.
Another reason I doubt the claim is that his numerous attempts to present credible scientific evidence have failed.
After several dozen New Energy Times readers analyzed Rossi’s claims and left no doubt about the lack of scientific credibility, Rossi said that he didn’t need to provide scientific evidence because he would prove himself by producing an operating reactor.
Thus, as the sun rises over Bologna this morning, there will be no need for data, thermistors or flow measurements. Rossi will turn on his device, then unplug it from the wall and show that his reactor can do real work: light a light bulb, turn a motor or warm up the room for his guests. Or he won’t.
Another reason for my doubt is that multiple customers, apparently with ample financial resources, have lined up to perform due diligence, and they all seem to lose interest. First, it was Defkalion, then Ampenergo, then Quantum Energy Technologies. Quantum’s engineers observed tests on Sept. 5 and 6 in Rossi’s showroom. The potential customers come, they look, they don’t come back. Same with NASA. NASA engineers went to see Rossi’s show along with the representatives from Quantum, and they came away empty-handed.
If I spent the time to count the inconsistencies presented by Rossi and his collaborators, I could list dozens of examples. Here’s a crucial one: In their 2010 self-published paper, they claimed an energy gain of 213 times. Yet, in January 2011, Rossi downgraded the claim to a 30 times energy gain. In April, he downgraded his claim again, to 6 times.
Here’s another example: Rossi and Focardi have said that they submitted their self-published paper to several journals but that it was rejected with prejudice. Yet, on June 14, I asked Focardi in which journals he and Rossi had attempted to publish their paper. Focardi revealed that they had not submitted the paper to any journal; he said they submitted it only to the arXiv pre-print service, but the administrators rejected it.
Another example: Rossi claimed he had a factory in Florida where he was testing 300 of his devices, yet the address listed on his corporate documents shows that to be a fifth-floor apartment.
Another example: Rossi claimed he was heating a building in Italy with one of his reactors, yet there is not a single piece of evidence to support that claim.
Another example: Rossi has claimed that the key to his technological innovation is a secret “catalyst.” Yet, in my video interview with him, he said his crucial discovery had everything to do with “pressure.”
How has Rossi been able to perform his magic show for so long? Technology journalist Mats Lewan of Ny Teknik gets some of the credit for this. Lewan has consistently failed to ask Rossi tough questions, turned a blind eye to crucial inconsistencies, and acted as Rossi’s scribe by writing his technical reports for him.
No wonder mainstream science media have not picked up on this Internet miracle. But two mainstream journalists have noticed the story. The first is David Hambling, a freelance journalist who wrote an article for Wired U.K. on Oct. 6, 2011. The second is Peter Svensson, a technology writer with the Associated Press who contacted me on May 20.
Mats Lewan Peter Svensson David Hambling
“I’ve been using your site quite a bit in my researches, sparked by my interest in the Rossi affair,” Svensson wrote. “The site is impressive, and I thought I might introduce myself to a fellow journalist.”
Before I left for my June trip to Bologna, I told Svensson that I was headed out to meet Rossi and see his device.
“I would be interested in hearing what you think,” Svensson wrote. “I’ve met Rossi. Give my regards to him when you see him!”
Svensson was interested in hearing my opinion about Rossi and his claim. I cannot say it any better than Daniel Larsson, the owner of the Energy Catalzyer blog, did: “Maybe Andrea Rossi knows: ‘Extraordinary scams require extraordinary claims.’”
[Update Oct. 28, 19:34: Rossi's 12th demo. No light bulbs are lit, no motors turn, no room is heated. Italian engineers with unknown affiliation take and report data on behalf of unknown "customer." Rossi uploads documents to his Web site which say that unidentified customer accepts delivery of his device. Document is signed "For the customer - Ing Domenico Fioravanti, (signature) " "For Leonardo Corporation" (signature). Words "For the customer" are partially redacted by Rossi.]
I sure hope this isn’t another oil industry plot to stop cold fusion. Jim Patterson proved the basic theory: For you scientists the reaction is simple. Ni (58.7) + 5H = 63.7 – Cu (63.5) = 0.2 mass lost, generating a huge amount of heat, which then can be used to make electricity. This technology will eventually put oil, coal, nuclear, etc., out of business…and they know it. Oh, and all the power companies and their grid. Patterson demonstrated his cell on Good Morning America. He also demonstrated a cell using radioactive waste, generating heat, and eliminating the radioactivity. From 1994-98 I published a Cold Fusion Journal, with all the scientific data. Non-polluting energy at a hundredth the cost of oil can be slowed, but not stopped.
Its a damn shame. This world needs a brake through like this but sold to the people in home units to produce their own energy..
Well, Steve, I’m hoping that even if we don’t get a Megawatt, that enough conventionally unexplained heat shows up to light the fuse to the publicity bomb that is needed to convince the mainstream that there is something real about LENR.
Nick
This guy should have been prosecuted long ago; what he does damages credibility to the entire new energy field. Or perhaps he is a scam artist under the orders of the Powers That Be!
I think Rossi, so far, is a “jolly good show”. Thirteen experiments reported, most open to selected scientists and reporters, and so far, absolutely nothing conclusive either way! That is quite an accomplishment.
The latest weirdness is a totally unnecessary increase in both electrical input and supposed power output to, supposedly, as of a few hours ago, 470 kW. Still:
- no proper calibration of instruments
- no blank run without hydrogen to test the instruments and heat losses
- no independent testing done entirely apart from Rossi and his colleagues
- no run long enough to exclude all possible sources of stored and externally supplied energy
So thus far, nobody know whether or not Rossi has a technology or just some bizarre combination of showmanship and sleight of hand of some sort. And of course, a perfectly excellent and determinative test could have been done with a 10 kW or even a 1 kW machine had it run long enough and had the test been independent of Rossi and his associates. The megawatt power level of the current test only adds to difficulties in measurement and calibration and provides further opportunities for Rossi to mislead and bamboozle the observers. After all, you can hide almost anything in a shipping container-sized device.
And then, the experiment only ran a few hours — as usual with Rossi. Here we have a nuclear powered device and it can only run a few hours? Or is it so important for everyone to rush home, get some sleep, have dinner, WHAT? What could be more important than a very long test?
I am shocked that all the reporters and scientists who have seen Rossi’s demos so far, except Mr. Krivit, have not asked a single difficult or critical question of Rossi. It’s unconscionable and incompetent.
The other current mystery is the identity of Rossi’s client. If it’s a large and famous company or government lab and it approves the test, that would be encouraging. If it’s not or if it’s an organization related to Rossi, then anything it says is suspect.
What fun!
At the bottom of Steven’s blog there is a link (“documents”) through which you can download a folder with materials pertaining to “the big test.” There you find 3 jpg files that are supposed to be the report of the test run. With many reports in regular science or business, it is the stuff that they have been trying to cross out that is the most revealing. In this case we go to a new level: it is the stuff that they want to make you believe they tried to cross out, that is actually the most interesting.
On the first page, a title before the name of the customer’s representative has been crossed out with blue ink. However, it has been crossed out in such a way that you can still read what is crossed out. That is probably intentional! “Colonel” is the word that has been crossed out. Does Rossi want to start a rumor to the effect that the military is the secret customer? Is he trying to attach the prestige of the military to his product?
I am just a computer geek, not a scientist.
However, Rossi’s big unit is ganged together small units. Is it in series or parallel?
Is it like a 5 degree rise plus a handoff to the next for a 5 degree rise (10 total minus transmission losses) plus another 5, till you get steam? when you get steam you have pressure in all directions. Where are the pressure vessels or pumps? Where is the licensed boiler operator?
I have seen the video, obviously, no steam and no significant pressure.
So, parallel then. It looks like 4 pumps with captive air tanks inline with the input waterline, that means the pumps are cycling on and off. Ok, so how much water is going through and what temp rise with what inputs. THIS IS THE SAME QUESTION FROM DAY ONE!!!
If one unit works, than it works. If one unit does not work than ganging it together, no mater how many units, wont work.
No matter how many hampster wheels you gang together you are not going to move the Queen Mary. Ganging units together, from an mech engineering point of view, instead of one purpose designed unit, has never been the best way to harness work.
The one stray thought I had is that somehow (and rossi does not know how) he has captured lightning in a bottle and has TRIED to scale up, with no luck. And has tried to explain what is happening and DOES NOT KNOW! This might somewhat explain his not quite sane behavior.
This is the most charitable interpretation I can put on the events of the last 6 months or so.
I have to agree that if one was trying to maintain a hoax this test didn’t prove anything. I’m still trying to figure out what he has to gain from this if it is a hoax though. Mary, did you ever get any information from Defkalion?
Well, the first Video from the test looks suspicious (again). Producing 479kW for 5.5 hours will deliver enough energy to heat 24.000 liter of water from 15°C to 100°C. Where is all the energy gone? Through those small radiators? What would have happened with the water if the ‘plant’ delivered the proposed 1MW? It doesn’t look like the setup for the test was even designed for that.
Maybe Rossi has something there, but obviously he’s always wrong in calculating the energy.
Thomas
Steven,
I appreciate your reasoned, rational, and skeptical response to this affair. However, I have a couple of questions. First of all, and this one blows me away that nobody is mentioning it, is that if the purpose of producing steam is, ultimately, to produce electricity why the hell hasn’t anyone asked for the E-Cat output be hooked up to a steam turbine engine? If it’s really over-unity, he should easily be able to produce enough electricity for it to be ‘self-sustaining’; i.e. a closed system.
Why has he not done this? Probably because it doesn’t work. Why hasn’t anyone asked or demanded this configuration? I have no idea.
Here’s the big question I have. Your hypothesis is that Rossi is running a scam. I want to be clear, his recent ‘demonstrations’ have gone far beyond any possibility of a simple misunderstanding or misinterpretation of his results. There is no two ways about it. Either he has what he says he has, or he (and his partners) are consciously perpetrating a fraud.
Now, assuming they are perpetrating a hoax, what is their end game? To fool enough people they can raise millions dollars in capital? To what end? He will be caught out soon enough once the fraud is exposed. Those who are raising this money will have him straight-jacketed with legal contracts controlling his access to funds.
I see no way that Rossi can spirit away millions of dollars of embezzled funds at the end of the day. And, this includes his partner Focardi as well, who will have his reputation destroyed.
What end game is there for Rossi in the ‘hoax’ hypothesis other than jail or court, penniless and disgraced?
This is the thing that puzzles me the most. Yes, I agree that Rossi comes off as more than a bit of a kook and a flake; and his behavior is that of a petulant child. Are we to believe he is so stupid he can get away with embezzling millions of dollars of investor capital, somehow manage to transfer these funds to a hidden account of his own, and get away with it?
Can you explain how you believe the hoax hypothesis pans out?
And, if you don’t think it’s a conscious hoax, that perhaps Rossi is merely misinterpreting his results, how can that be in the face of his most recent demonstrations? I don’t think it could be anything other than a conscious hoax considering how he has configured his experiments.
Thanks,
John
A simple Peltier cell array to light a tiny LED or to move a toy d.c. motor would be enough to demonstrate that an isolated device i.e. without energy input, works succesfully. At E Cat world blog I have posted “circus” to qualify Mr. Rossi’s story. I have been prudent, it is s c a m.
In addition to Maryyugo’s reservations about this show, I can add that even if the data, as presented, is accepted, it does not constitute evidence for excess heat, let alone heat from nuclear reactions:
1. No evidence is presented that the water is all converted to steam. Rossi says he collects the unconverted water, but gives no explanation how. The steam is at 105C or so, but the internal pressure is almost certain to be significantly elevated by even a small amount of steam formation. Moreover, given the size of the pipes, a full conversion to steam is at 650 kg/hour is not plausible. The only thing the data show definitively is that the water is heated to 105C, and that corresponds to a total output heat of about 370 kWh instead of the 2635 kWh claimed.
2. The total input heat is not given. The input heat from 12:30 to 18:00 is given as 66 kWh (during the “self-sustained” period). But according to the spreadsheet, the heat was turned on at 10:30. The report does not indicate the power level, but it would only have to be about 150 kW (for 2 hours) to account for the total output energy as calculated in (1). Since there was a 500 kW diesel generator on site, this seems perfectly feasible, and it is also consistent with the power level Rossi said would be used to ignite the reaction. Finally, we don’t know if the device was still retaining heat from earlier runs. After all, the water was heated from 15 to 30 degrees at time zero.